Market analysis on EURUSD, USDCAD, and EURJPY: 10th October -14thOctober
EURUSD: 10th October -14thOctober
Figure: EURUSD daily chart
The EURUSD pair is struggling hard to put an end to its long term bearish trend in the market from the very beginning of the month of October. Last week the EURUSD pair recovered its losses and again gain strong momentum in the market upon the bad NFP news. Currently, there has been a mass chaos in the market about the interest rate hike decision by the FED. The average hourly income data U.S has not come as expected and investors are in fear that the mighty dollar might face long-term bearish momentum in the market. However, last week ECB statement brought some balance in the market which is in favor of the EURO. Currently, the price is trading well below the long-term daily bearish trend line residence level situated at1.1250 level. To be precise price has tested the bearish trend line resistance level several consecutive times in order to establish strong bullish pair in the market. In the upcoming week, there is strong chance of an upward rally in the EURUSD pair. The upcoming FOMC meeting minute is going to play a significant role in the EURUSD pair since the price is trading near the critical resistance level at 1.1250 levels. A clear bullish break above that level will bring strong upward rally in the pair .The first minor resistance level for this pair would be 1.1400 levels. If the pair manages to breach that level then we might see a retest of the high at 1.1600 levels. So buying the EURUSD with a valid break of the 1.1250 level might give you the excellent buying opportunity.
The bearish momentum of this pair is currently fading away in compliance with the weakness of mighty U.S dollar. If the trend line resistance at 1.1250 levels manages to restrict the upward rally in the pair then the first initial bearish target for this pair would be 1.1105 levels. A clear decisive break of that level will bring the further downward movement of this pair towards the 1.0950 level. A valid break of the key support level at 1.0500 levels will confirm the bearish continuation of this pattern.
USDCAD Forecast: 10th October -14thOctober
Figure: USDCAD daily chart
The medium term weekly bearish trend is at risk since the price is making nice higher high associated with higher lows in the market. The sharp fall in the USDCAD forex pair has been initiated for the last couple of two months due to the tremendous weakness in the U.S economy. The interest rate hike decision by the FED was postponed in the last FOMC meeting minute. Moreover, they gave a slight clue that they are most likely to hold the interest rate till the month of December. From the very beginning of 2016, there has been a mass chaos into the mind of investors about the rate hike decision and the performance U.S economy. Currently, the price is trading well above the 200 days SMA in the daily chart which is clearly a bullish indication for the USDCAD pair in terms of technical view. But the current gain of U.S economy is most likely to vanish away since there is no probability of rate hike till December. This week is very much important for the USDCAD pair since investors will be cautiously observing the FOMC meeting discussion for next probable clue in the market. Last Friday the USDCAD pair closed well above the 200 days SMA which has now become a strong support for this pair. Those who are short time buyers in this pair can enter long into this pair 1.32210 levels with a tight stop loss below the 200 days SMA. The first initial bullish target for this pair would be rising trend line resistance at1.3300 level. Technically price is trading to close at the support level to enter short and in the presence of strong resistance level at 1.3300 levels argues against going long. The pair might again fall to the first critical support level if the FED comes with the dovish statement. The first bearish target for this pair would be the 100 days SMA at 1.3000 levels. A clear decisive break below that level will bring further downward fall in this pair towards the 1.27000 level. Considering all the parameters entering long at the current price is too risky for the long-term investors. So it’s better to go short in this pair with valid price action confirmation signal near the key resistance level.
EURJPY Forecast: 10th October -14thOctober
Figure: EURJPY daily chart
The long term bearish trend line in the EURJPY pair is at risk since the price has broken the secondary bearish trend line resistance level at 114.50 levels. However, investors are still in fear to go long into this pair since 116.50 levels is going to provide massive resistance in the bullish move of this pair. In the daily chart, the pair has formed nice bearish evening star right at the long term bearish trend line resistance at 116.00 levels. The 100 day daily SMA is also providing dynamic resistance at 116.00 levels. To be precise, price action confirmation and resistance level are suggesting a strong bearish move in this pair in the upcoming week. However, if the pair manages to breach the bearish trend line resistance we will see a strong bullish move in this pair towards the 118.42 level. A valid break of that level will confirm the end of the long term bearish momentum of this pair. Since price action signal is suggesting the bearish move in this pair in the upcoming week. Professional traders are in short position with an initial bearish target of 114.00 levels. A clear decisive break below that level will bring strong bearish move towards the 112.50 level.